Opta Analyst
Total reads
57
This week
0
Rank
#327 of 467
Published
886 posts
Most read posts
Featured on Sportsblogs
Run this blog? Add the badge to your site to show readers you're featured — it links back to this page.
Latest Entries
FCS Football Week 10 Preview & Predictions: Important Conference Games Abound
Week 10 of the FCS season delivers a record five Top‑25 head‑to‑head battles across different conferences. No. 2 Stephen F. Austin (9‑0) faces No. 13 Lamar (7‑2) in a Southland showdown that could decide the conference title and an automatic playoff bid, with win probabilities of 53‑47%. The historic Abilene Christian‑Tarleton State rivalry, now dubbed “The Hundred‑Mile Showdown,” pits No. 23 ACU against top‑ranked Texas‑San Antonio for first place in the UAC. In the SoCon, No. 14 Mercer travels to No. 25 Chattanooga, a clash of top defenses versus a powerful rushing trio. MVFC sees No. 10 Illinois State visit No. 11 North Dakota, while No. 3 Montana State heads to No. 22 Idaho State in a pass‑defense vs. rush‑heavy duel. The Patriot League round includes No. ? Lehigh hosting Colgate, adding to the title‑race intensity as only three regular‑season weekends remain.
How Two Former Barcelona Full-Backs are Transforming London City Lionesses’ Flanks
London City Lionesses’ attack now thrives on the evolution of former Barcelona full‑backs Lucia Corrales and Jana Fernández. Against Manchester City, Corrales’ overlapping run and Fernández’s box‑jumping finish highlighted a tactical shift that adds width and penetration to Eder Maestre’s side. Fernández’s off‑the‑ball positioning has boosted her box touches (1.7 per 90), shots (1.5 per 90) and shots on target (0.50 per 90), leading to two league goals and the highest xG for a defender this season. Corrales pairs with Daniëlle van de Donk, while Fernández links with Kadidiatou Diani, helping London City record the league’s second‑highest xG (21.9) and a historic 1.69 xG in the first half versus the champions. Their combined play fuels the Lionesses’ newly dynamic flanks.
The 10% Club: Opta’s Best Under-the-Radar FPL Picks for Gameweek 10
Opta’s ‘10% Club’ highlights five low‑ownership FPL picks for Gameweek 10. Defenders Jarrad Branthwaite (£5.5m, 2.2% ownership) and Ronald Araúco (£5.0m, 4.0%) offer solid points per game and cheaper alternatives to their higher‑priced teammates. Midfielder Yasin Ayari (£5.4m, 1.5% ownership) rides a hot streak, scoring 25 points in the last three rounds for Brighton, while a Bournemouth midfielder (Rayan, £6.3m, 2.3% ownership) is also flagged after António Silva’s eight‑point GW9 performance. The guide uses Opta data to pinpoint these under‑the‑radar assets ahead of fixtures against Coventry, Liverpool, Brentford and more, giving managers a chance to gain an edge before the international break.
Bournemouth Refused to Panic, Now Marco Rose’s Cherries Are Blossoming
Despite a rocky start to the 2026-27 Premier League – three defeats and three draws, including a 5-1 loss to Chelsea – Marco Rose remains optimistic about Bournemouth's underlying quality. Rose highlights that the Cherries have outperformed opponents in expected goals (xG) in four of six games, creating more high‑value chances even when results have slipped. Early setbacks, such as late concessions against Manchester City and Newcastle, have been framed as part of the transition after Andoni Iraola’s departure. Rose urges the squad to translate superior performances into points as the club sits 18th after six matchdays, emphasizing confidence and the need to prove themselves on the table.
Man Utd’s Second Half vs Roma Proves the Players Haven’t Given Up on Michael Carrick
Manchester United snapped a nine‑game winless streak with a dramatic second‑half comeback against Roma, overturning a 2‑0 deficit to win 3‑2 in the Champions League on Nov 4, 2026. The turnaround, highlighted by a surge in tackles (15 vs 6), pressures (159 vs 125) and a 2.46 xG in the second half, suggests players are still backing head coach Michael Carrick despite earlier criticism from captain Bruno Fernandes and fan protests. The victory, United’s first since Sept 10, keeps their knockout‑stage hopes alive and may signal lingering support for Carrick.
Manchester United 3-2 Roma Stats: Late Cunha Brace Completes Stunning Turnaround
Manchester United snap a nine‑game winless run with a dramatic 3‑2 comeback over Roma at Old Trafford in the Champions League on 3 Nov 2026. After trailing 2‑0 within 17 minutes via goals from Matías Soulé and Donyell Malen, United pull level when Bruno Fernandes converts a retaken penalty at 58’. Matheus Cunha then nets a brace in under three minutes – 83’ and 86’ – to clinch victory, though he is sent off in stoppage time. The win lifts pressure on manager Michael Carrick and marks United’s first half‑time comeback win since Oct 2021.
Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa Stats: Yamal Makes Champions League History as Raphinha Doubles Up
Barcelona dominate Aston Villa 3-0 at a rain‑soaked Camp Nou, with teenager Lamine Yamal etching his name in Champions League history. Yamal scores in the 7th minute, becoming the youngest player to reach 14 goals in the competition, surpassing Kylian Mbappé. Raphinha adds a second‑half brace, his third consecutive Champions League double, moving him level with Robert Lewandowski among Barça’s all‑time scorers. Unai Emery endures his 22nd loss to Barça, while Villa, previously the most time‑leading side this season, collapse after defensive errors. The match marks Villa’s joint‑heaviest European defeat.
Quarterbacks Are Soaring in the Big Sky, Winning Down in the Missouri Valley
The Big Sky and Missouri Valley conferences are producing a historic depth of elite FCS quarterbacks. In the Big Sky, Montana's Keali’I Ah Yat tops the league with 2,607 yards and 26 TDs, while Montana State’s Justin Lamson boasts a 72.0% completion rate and 13 TDs with just one interception. Idaho’s Joshua Wood leads the FCS with six 300‑yard games, and Eastern Washington’s Nate Bell ranks second in completions nationwide. In the MVFC, Youngstown State’s Beau Brungard, the 2025 Walter Payton Award winner, tops total offense (337.8 yards/game) and touchdowns (33). Freshmen Trevor Cleeland and Nate Dahle each eclipse 2,200 passing yards. The surge has helped both conferences place five teams in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25.
FotMob European Team of the Month: Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Nico Paz Among the Stars of October
FotMob’s October European Team of the Month, compiled with Opta data, spotlights Kylian Mbappé as the highest‑rated player in Europe. Goalkeeper Matvey Safonov (PSG) posted an 8.0 rating after four clean wins, while Marseille’s right‑back Timothy Weah (7.9) contributed two assists and a goal. Tottenham’s Jan Paul van Hecke (7.9) dominated duels in the Premier League, and Bayern’s Dayot Upamecano (7.8) scored twice and led possession recoveries. Atletico’s Álex Grimaldo (8.0) added a goal and created five chances. The selection covers performances from 9 Oct to 2 Nov across the top five leagues.
Slavia Prague vs Arsenal Prediction: Champions League Preview
Arsenal enter Wednesday’s Champions League clash at Slavia Prague as overwhelming favorites, with the Opta supercomputer predicting a win in 69% of simulations. The Gunners boast an 18‑game unbeaten run in Europe (13 wins, 5 draws) and have kept 11 clean sheets, highlighted by keeper David Raya’s 54% shut‑out rate. Key contributors include Eberechi Eze, who aims to become only the second Englishman to score in three consecutive Champions League matches, and captain Martin Ødegaard, leading in line‑breaking passes. Slavia, winless in 22 Champions League games, risk matching a 23‑match winless record. Injuries saw Arsenal missing Bukayo Saka and William Saliba, while Slavia cope with several absentees. Historical head‑to‑head favors Arsenal, unbeaten in five meetings.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa: UEFA Champions League Preview
Barcelona, fresh off a 6-1 thrashing of Alavés, head into Tuesday’s Champions League tie as 72% favorites against Aston Villa. Opta’s model highlights Lamine Yamal’s chance to break the teenage goal record (13 goals, 13 assists) while Emiliano Buendía targets a fifth straight European goal. Villa, unbeaten in terms of never trailing, rely on Johan Manzambi’s six direct contributions and Nicolas Jackson’s six goals this month. Injuries have forced Barcelona to shuffle defenses, with Brian Fariñas debuting at right‑back and Frenkie de Jong covering centre‑half. Manager Unai Emery returns to a venue of his 2017 6‑1 loss, hoping his side can upset a Barcelona side averaging 2.97 goals per game.
Chelsea’s Attack Fires, Arsenal Frustrated Again, Man City Escape Hayes Lane: Five WSL Talking Points from MD8
Chelsea and Manchester City stay side‑by‑side atop the WSL after a weekend of stark contrasts. Chelsea thrash Charlton 6‑0 at The Valley, posting a record 6.37 xG and 36 shots in an away game, with Katie McCabe notching back‑to‑back assists and Melvine Malard netting a brace. City scrape past London City Lionesses despite a fierce challenge, while Arsenal become the first team to draw four consecutive home matches, holding Aston Villa 1‑1 despite 90.9% passing accuracy and only one shot by the visitors. Tottenham finally break a three‑game losing streak, and Manchester United extend their 10‑match unbeaten run, but fall short of Everton. The article also notes the ongoing struggles of newly promoted clubs.
FotMob Premier League Team of the Month: Evanilson, Rice and Jackson Stand Out With October Performances
FotMob’s Premier League Team of the Month highlights Bournemouth striker Evanilson as the top‑rated player for October, with Declan Rice and Nicolas Jackson also making the XI. Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen (Brighton) kept three clean sheets, including a historic 1‑0 win at Manchester City on 31 Oct. Defenders Andrew Robertson (Tottenham) and Ezri Konsa (Arsenal) earned high marks, while Jan Paul van Hecke (Tottenham) topped the pass‑completion chart. Ben White (Arsenal) contributed two assists, and Jeremy Doku (Man City) scored and created goals for the champions. The selections cover the four matchdays from 10 Oct to 2 Nov, using FotMob ratings and Opta data to pinpoint the month’s standout performances.
More Than a Lone Star: Tarleton State, SFA Headline Texas Contingent in FCS Top 25 Poll
The latest Stats Perform FCS Top 25 poll, released after Week 9, keeps Texas powerhouses Tarleton State and Stephen F. Austin at No. 1 and No. 2 with both teams unbeaten at 9‑0. Tarleton State (4‑0 UAC) hosts No. 23 Abilene Christian, while SFA (6‑0 Southland) travels to No. 13 Lamar, a clash that could decide the United Athletic Conference crown and an automatic FCS playoff berth. Montana State remains No. 3, and Youngstown State and South Dakota State round out the top five. The poll, based on 57 first‑place votes, awards 25 points for a first‑place vote and is updated each Monday through the regular season.
Five Knee-Jerk Reactions to Premier League 2026-27 Matchday 9
Opta Analyst’s ‘Five Knee‑Jerk Reactions’ to Matchday 9 spotlights Manchester United’s dilemma over Bruno Fernandes, who has gone eight games without a goal or assist and may be on his way out. Bournemouth’s surprising surge to seventh place is credited to Alex Scott’s injury, with the side winning six straight games without him. Brighton & Hove Albion, fresh off a 1‑0 win at Manchester City, claim the title of Arsenal’s closest challengers, leading the league in goals (24), big chances (35) and clean sheets (6). The column questions whether these swift conclusions will stand as the season progresses.
UAlbany, Davis, Feseli, Thomas, Steve Collect FCS Football Awards (Week 9)
Stats Perform honors top FCS performers for Week 9: Montana wideout Brooks Davis earns Offensive Player of the Week after a 231-yard, three‑TD game in a 42‑33 win over Eastern Washington. Idaho State freshman defensive end Trehsyn Feseli captures Defensive Player of the Week with a game‑changing pick‑six and strip‑sack in a 34‑27 victory at Utah Tech. Lamar’s Blake Thomas is named Special Teams Player after a 97‑yard kickoff return and two rushing TDs in a 52‑23 win over UTRGV. Freshman safety Max Steve garners Freshman Player of the Week, posting 20 tackles and an interception in Samford’s 10‑9 upset of Wofford. UAlbany Great Danes claim Team of the Week, beating Campbell 45‑35 behind three TD passes from Kai Colon and multiple turnover scores.
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal Stats: Havertz Ends Gunners’ Anfield Hoodoo
Arsenal break a 14‑year hoodoo at Anfield, beating Liverpool 1‑0 on November 1, 2026. Kai Havertz scores in the 16th minute – his 46th Premier League goal, making him the competition’s leading German scorer – after a Declan Rice cross. Liverpool dominate possession and register 17 shots, yet none hit target, marking the first home Premier League game without a shot on target since 2003‑04. The win propels Arteta’s side to the top of the table, three points clear of Manchester City, while Liverpool slip to fifth, nine points behind.
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction: Premier League Preview
The Opta supercomputer gives Everton a 45.9% chance to beat Newcastle in Monday’s Premier League clash, despite the Magpies’ recent 3‑1 EFL Cup loss. Everton have won their last two visits to St James’ Park and aim to avoid a third straight defeat, while Newcastle seek revenge after a 2‑0 win over Crystal Palace and look to tighten a defence that has faced the most shots in the league so far. Key players include James Tarkowski, who leads the league in duels won, and Harvey Barnes, counting his 100th appearance with four goals and three assists in the last 12 games. Both sides have injury concerns, with Jack Grealish’s availability still uncertain.
FCS Playoff Bracket Predictions: Three Weeks Before Selection Sunday
With three weeks left before Selection Sunday, Opta Analyst projects the 2026 FCS playoff field and matchups. The 24-team bracket includes 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large bids, featuring Big Sky’s Montana State, Missouri Valley’s South Dakota State, and Ivy League’s Harvard among the top seeds. Projected first-round pairings pit Harvard (16) against North Dakota and UAlbany (9) versus Tennessee Tech, while the First Four likely eliminates Weber State, ETSU, Chattanooga, and Northern Iowa. Key dates: Top‑10 rankings on Nov. 5, selection show Nov. 22, and the championship on Jan. 11 in Nashville.
Milan 3-1 Inter Stats: Moreira Inspires Rossoneri to Derby della Madonnina Victory
Diego Moreira sparks Milan's 3-1 Derby della Madonnina win over Inter on October 31, 2026. The 22‑year‑old nets a stunning 25‑yard free‑kick and provides assists for Christian Pulisic and Adrien Rabiot within the first ten minutes, ending Inter’s unbeaten start. Alessandro Bastoni scores Inter’s lone goal, but Milan hold a two‑goal lead at halftime and repel a late comeback. The victory marks Milan’s third consecutive league win against Inter – a feat not seen since Ancelotti’s era – and keeps them unbeaten in eight matches overall. Rabiot also records a goal or assist for the fifth straight Serie A game.
Bayern Munich 2-2 Borussia Dortmund Stats: Kane’s Penalty Miss Costly as Silva Clinches Klassiker Point
In the Bundesliga’s Der Klassiker on October 31, 2026, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund finish 2-2, keeping both clubs unbeaten after eight games. Bayern lead 1-0 through Konrad Laimer, but Harry Kane—making his debut after winning the Ballon d’Or—misses a penalty that hits the crossbar. Dortmund equalise via Serhou Guirassy, Bayern retake the lead with Dayot Upamecano, then substitute Fábio Silva scores a dramatic minute‑of‑added‑time winner. The match sees injuries to Bayern’s Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry, a VAR‑cancelled goal, and Kane ending with six shots, none on target, but an assist that brings him to 10 direct goal involvements this season.
Man City 0-1 Brighton Stats: Early Ayari Goal Deals Premier League Leaders Second Straight Loss
Brighton stun Premier League leaders Manchester City 1-0 at the Etihad on Oct. 31, 2026, ending City’s 24‑game scoring streak and handing them a second straight league loss. Yasin Ayari capitalises on a Matheus Nunes error, tapping in after a Lewis Dunk free‑kick to net his third league goal. Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen makes multiple crucial saves, preserving a clean sheet as Brighton record their sixth shut‑out of the season. City’s chances fall to Iliman Ndiaye, Jérémy Doku and Erling Haaland, while Brighton’s defence frustrates the hosts, keeping them atop the table only on goal difference. The Opta match centre provides full stats, xG data and passing networks for deeper analysis.
Chelsea 2-0 Man Utd Stats: Rogers and Palmer Leave Carrick on the Brink as Martínez Sees Red
Chelsea clinches a 2-0 Premier League win over Manchester United at Stamford Bridge on October 31, 2026, thanks to second‑half strikes from Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer and a red card for Lisandro Martínez, who receives a second yellow for a lunge on Wesley Fofana. United dominated the first half with 1.09 xG versus Chelsea's 0.28, but their chances evaporated after the sending‑off. The loss leaves Michael Carrick’s job in jeopardy as United slip to nine games without a win, their worst run since 1988. Palmer reaches his 50th league goal in just 105 appearances, joining an elite Chelsea scoring list.
FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard (Week 9)
Week 9 of the 2026 FCS season sees top‑ranked Tarleton State stay unbeaten with a 28‑24 thriller over Eastern Kentucky, while Stephen F. Austin dominates Houston Christian 37‑6. Montana State blows out Cal Poly 61‑7, and Youngstown State narrowly beats No. 9 North Dakota 31‑28. In a marquee duel, No. 5 South Dakota State defeats No. 6 South Dakota 31‑21, marking SDSU’s 200th Division I win. Other notable results include Tennessee Tech edging No. 16 ETSU 24‑17, UAlbany upending No. 12 Campbell 45‑35, and a 59‑0 rout by No. 24 Abilene Christian over West Georgia. These outcomes set the stage for the next Stats Perform Top 25 poll release on Monday.
London City Lionesses vs Manchester City Prediction: WSL Preview
We look ahead to Sunday's WSL showdown with our London City Lionesses vs Manchester City preview. The post London City Lionesses vs Manchester City Prediction: WSL Preview appeared first on Opta Analyst .